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The Q4 2026 edition of Charting Crypto, our quarterly report with Coinbase Institutional, reads the market and on-chain data behind bitcoin's early recovery and sets out the outlook into year-end.
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Bitcoin is stuck under the cost basis of the past two years' buyers, the ETFs are selling again, and September's CPI came in hot. Underneath, the base holds: price sits above the True Market Mean and the ETF cost basis, loss-taking has dried up, and this bear never closed below the Realized Price.
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Bitcoin trades just below $83k after a mid-week slide briefly undid the September breakout. Perpetual traders and ETF holders led the selling, while new capital kept arriving on-chain and profitability stays stretched.
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